Apple Valley, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

699
FXUS63 KMPX 100843
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
343 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 30-40 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms
  across southeastern MN into western WI today.

- Wildfire smoke moves back in tonight and Monday.

- Potentially active again late week and next weekend as a
  frontal boundary gets hung up in the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Areas of fog have developed across southern MN and western WI
with visibilities in some cases dropping to 1/4 mile. With clear
skies and light or calm winds in place, the fog should become
more widespread through dawn. However, any one location probably
won`t see enough continuous dense fog to justify a Dense Fog
Advisory attm.

Later today an upper low will lift north and heights will rise
slightly. A shortwave will be steered northeast to the Upper
Midwest while instability builds across southeastern MN and WI.
A few thunderstorms could develop late morning through mid
afternoon, with a much greater concentration to the southeast
where more heavy rainfall is expected.

Smoke will begin to make a return across western MN tonight,
then should engulf the rest of the area Monday and Monday night.
Poor air quality will result and the Air Quality Advisory
continues for MN through noon Tuesday.

A potent shortwave trough will largely remain in southern
Canada, but a trough axis will swing across the Upper Midwest
Monday night and early Tuesday. A few showers or thunderstorms
may accompany this wave, primarily central MN, with better
chances to the north.

Ridging will build back over the Rockies mid to late week. Some
thunderstorms are possible along a warm front late week, then
again along a slow moving trailing cold front this weekend.
Confidence is naturally low at this range, as are the PoPs for
now.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Mid and high level clouds continue dissipating as they head into
southern MN, so confidence in fog formation at some TAF sites
continues to increase. The best chances are across southern MN
and western WI. EAU has been bouncing up and down with vis, but
satellite shows fairly widespread fog developing in central and
west central WI. Central and western MN are a bit drier in the
low levels, which should help to keep fog from developing there.

KMSP...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Patchy
fog should remain away from the terminal.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
WED...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Borghoff